Iraq Demonstrations Impact Oil Production

COMMENTS: The many years of external and internal conflict in Iraq has resulted in impoverishment of the masses. Now, Basrah, the center of southern oil production is in turmoil as riots are spreading demanding jobs in the oil producing sector. So far one demonstrator has been shot by the police and others wounded and, with the tribal structure of society there, escalation is inevitable and has begun to affect the oil production operations. If matters get worse, the 3.5 Million barrels a day of southern Iraq could be obstructed, which would certainly exacerbate the tight oil supplies worldwide and further push oil price up.

GENERALLY: Pessimistic
NEGATIVE FOR: Primarily for Iraq and secondarily for the oil consumers, who will be hit by higher oil prices. Of course, there is also a negative political fallout on the Gulf region as a whole.
POSITIVE FOR: Iran, Venezuela and other oil producers who have had their production impeded by geopolitical action.
TIME SCOPE: Short Term


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